基于日特征量相似日的PSO-SVM短期负荷预测

通过引入人体舒适度指数,综合分析了气象因素对电力负荷的影响,并加入星期类型、日天气类型、日期差3个主要影响因素,构成了日特征向量,采用求取相似度的方法来选取相似日,利用相似日的日特征向量和负荷数据来建立PSO-SVM预测模型。经2001年EUNITE负荷预测竞赛的数据预测分析表明,该方法适应性较强,能够选取较合适的相似日,有较高的预测精度和推广能力。     

Building envelope design for climate change mitigation: a case study of hotels in Greece

This paper presents results of a study of the impact of future climate change scenarios as developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and implemented in weather files for specific future time slices (2020, 2050 and 2080) for the three climatic regions of Greece on the design of the external envelope of a hotel building in Greece. The impact of climate change on the hotel is assessed via hourly simulations of a calibrated model developed using the software TRNSYS. Additionally, the paper aims to identify optimal refurbishment strategies, given the constraints of the existing case-study building when transposed to the three different climatic zones in Greece. Two modes of the hotel building were studied: ‘all year’ and ‘seasonally’ operated. It was found that different external envelope energy-efficient strategies can be applied depending on the climatic zone and whether the hotel is all-year or seasonally operated.     

济南市冬季灰霾日PM1.0和PM1.0—2.5污染特征

为探讨济南市灰霾日大气细颗粒物的化学组分特征, 于2014-01-15—02-17利用PM_1.0、 PM_2.5中流量采样仪,离子色谱及OC/EC分析仪等研究手段,对济南市灰霾日PM_1.0及PM_2.5的浓度水平及化学组成进行了系统研究。结果表明:灰霾日和非灰霾日NO^-₃、SO^2-₄、NH⁺₄均为PM_1.0和PM_2.5的主要成分,灰霾日时NO^-₃、SO^2-₄、NH⁺₄质量浓度占PM_1.0和PM_2.5质量浓度的比例明显升高,并且三种成分质量浓度在PM_1.0中均有显著升高,显示二次无机气溶胶的快速增加是灰霾形成的重要因素。碳质组分(OC+EC)是PM_1.0及PM_2.5中所占比例为第二位的组分,灰霾日OC和二次有机碳(SOC)较非灰霾日明显升高,表明灰霾日更有利于SOC的生成。72 h后向气流轨迹分析表明,起源于山东省内东部及北京、天津一带气流的近地面传输对灰霾形成有重要影响。     

A simple formula for estimating global solar radiation in central arid deserts of Iran

Over the last two decades, using simple radiation models has been an interesting task to estimate daily solar radiation in arid and semi-arid deserts such as those in Iran, where the number of solar observation sites is poor. In Iran, most of the models used so far, have been validated for a few specific locations based on short-term solar observations. In this work, three different radiation models (Sabbagh, Paltridge, Daneshyar) have been revised to predict the climatology of monthly average daily solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in various cities in central arid deserts of Iran. The modifications are made by the inclusion of altitude, monthly total number of dusty days and seasonal variation of Sun–Earth distance. A new height-dependent formula is proposed based on MBE, MABE, MPE and RMSE statistical analysis. It is shown that the revised Sabbagh method can be a good estimator for the prediction of global solar radiation in arid and semi-arid deserts with an average error of less than 2%, that performs a more accurate prediction than those in the previous studies. The required data for the suggested method are usually available in most meteorological sites. For the locations, where some of the input data are not reported, an alternative approach is presented.     

粉煤灰混凝土强度增长规律初探

经过大量试验,初步探讨了粉煤灰掺量、胶水比、养护温度对混凝土28天强度的影响规律,建立的三元数学模型较好地描述了这一强度增长规律。对于粉煤灰混凝土的试配和现场施工,这一数学模型有积极的指导作用。     

基于水质水量监测的武汉市雨水径流污染特征分析

以武汉市茶山刘分流制排水区域为例,基于4场雨水径流水质水量监测资料,采用初始冲刷无量纲累积分析M(V)曲线分析了雨水径流初始冲刷效应,并使用SPSS软件对4场降雨事件的水质指标进行相关性分析.结果 表明,武汉市雨水径流污染物COD、TP、TN、NH3-N的降雨径流平均浓度分别为地表水Ⅴ类标准的4.9、6.2、13.0、...     

1961—2016 年中国冰雹日数时空演变特征

采用 1961—2016 年 2 481 站的冰雹日数数据，利用多种统计方法分析了中国及七大地理分 区的冰雹日数时空分布特征和周期变化规律。结果表明: 1961—2016 年中国整体及其不同区域的冰 雹日数整体均呈减少趋势，且西藏(东南)地区明显高(低)于其他 6 个分区和全国平均水平。全国和 七大地理分区的年均冰雹日数在 5 年以下和 30 ～ 60 年尺度上的振荡周期相对显著，且大致都在 1990s 中期至 2000s 中期发生突变。中国冰雹事件多发区域比较稳定，且在分布上西部地区较多，东部地区 较少; 地表复杂地区较多，地表单一地区较少; 高原和山地较多，平原较少; 迎风坡较多，背风坡较 少。2000s 和 2010s 为全国冰雹日数偏多的年代，而 1960s 和 1990s 则偏少。1961—2016 年全国年均 冰雹日数呈增加趋势的地区分布较少，而呈减少趋势的地区主要集中在西藏、青海南部及东北部、四 川西部、新疆西北部、内蒙古中部及其交界的河北北部、内蒙古东北部、黑龙江中部和吉林东部地 区。全国年均冰雹日数波动特征从东南沿海向西北内陆呈现“两端高、中间低”的分布特征。波动较 大的地区主要分布在华东、华南、华中、重庆、四川东部、陕西南部、内蒙古西部、新疆东部及其交 界的甘肃地区、新疆南部及其交界西藏地区。     

Genomic prediction of lactation curves for milk,fat, protein,and somatic cell score in Holstein cattle

Application of random regression models (RRM) in a 2-step genomic prediction might be a feasible way to select young animals based on the complete pattern of the lactation curve. In this context, the prediction reliability and bias of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) for milk, fat, and protein yields and somatic cell score over days in milk (DIM) using a 2-step genomic approach were investigated. In addition, the effect of including cows in the training and validation populations was investigated. Estimated breeding values for each DIM (from 5 to 305 d) from the first 3 lactations of Holstein animals were deregressed and used as pseudophenotypes in the second step. Individual additive genomic random regression coefficients for each trait were predicted using RRM and genomic best linear unbiased prediction and further used to derive GEBV for each DIM. Theoretical reliabilities of GEBV obtained by the RRM were slightly higher than theoretical reliabilities obtained by the accumulated yield up to 305 d (P305). However, validation reliabilities estimated for GEBV using P305 were higher than for GEBV using RRM. For all traits, higher theoretical and validation reliabilities were estimated when incorporating genomic information. Less biased GEBV estimates were found when using RRM compared with P305, and different validation reliability and bias patterns for GEBV over time were observed across traits and lactations. Including cows in the training population increased the theoretical reliabilities and bias of GEBV; nonetheless, the inclusion of cows in the validation population does not seem to affect the regression coefficients and the theoretical reliabilities. In summary, the use of RRM in 2-step genomic prediction produced fairly accurate GEBV over the entire lactation curve for all analyzed traits. Thus, selecting young animals based on the pattern of lactation curves seems to be a feasible alternative in genomic selection of Holstein cattle for milk production traits.     

日本の寒地，北海道の稲作限界地帯におけるもち米の硬化性，糊化特性および炊飯米物理特性の年次間地域間差異と発生要因(日语原文)

北海道もち米の6地域4カ年における搗き餅の硬化性と糊化特性を調査した。それらの最小値最大値の差異および変動係数は，年次間が地域間に比べ大きく，年次間と地域間との比の大きさおよび特性間の相関係数から，同比の小さい順にⅠ群の最高粘度とブレークダウン，Ⅱ群の最低粘度，最終粘度およびコンシステンシー，Ⅲ群の糊化開始温度，最高粘度到達温度，最高粘度到達時間および硬化性に分けられた。年次間ではこれら3群の糊化特性の中で，Ⅱ群とⅢ群において硬化性と正の相関関係が認められ，Ⅲ群で最も明確であった。また，出穂後40日間の日平均積算気温（登熟気温）が高いほどⅡ群，Ⅲ群および硬化性が高くなり，その関係はⅢ群と硬化性で最も明確であった。一方，地域間ではこれらの関係が概して明確ではなかった。さらに，精米蛋白質含有率が高いほど，Ⅰ群とⅡ群では年次間と地域間とも，Ⅲ群では年次間のみで，特性値が低くなった。また，炊飯米の物理特性で，平年並みの登熟気温年産と高温の登熟気温年産を比べると，平年登熟年産は柔らかいが粘りが弱く食味が劣るものの，5 ℃ 24时間貯蔵より硬くなりにくく柔らかさが持続した。一方，高温登熟年産は粘りが強く5 ℃ 24时間貯蔵により硬くなり，粘りもやや低下した。また，高蛋白ほど，両年産とも粘りが弱く食味が低下する傾向にあり，良食味もち米生産のため低蛋白米生産技術が重要であった。     

1961年—2010年北流市降水变化趋势初步研究

利用北流市1961年—2010年的降水资料,采用线性回归方法分析了当地降水的时间变化特征。结果发现:北流市的年降水量呈现逐渐减少趋势,年降水日数呈现逐步减少趋势,而最大日降水量逐年增加。季节变化分析表明,北流各级降水的季节变化差异较大。